Q3 2022 Fund Flows: Investors Sound the Recession Alarm, Move into Money Markets, Flee Fixed Income

In the third quarter of 2022, we saw: the Federal Reserve hike rates twice by 75 basis points, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Rate increase from a low of 2.6% in August to nearly 4% by the end of September, and the 30-Year Mortgage Rate tick up drastically from 5 to nearly 7%.  The VIX has … Continued

What Happens After A Fed Rate Hike?

Fasten your seatbelts, everyone—interest rates have lifted off. In June 2022, the Fed Chair Jay Powell and the FOMC voted to hike their target range by 75 basis points, to 1.50-1.75%. Marking the largest single hike since 1994, the Fed delivered investors a mixed bag of emotions—everyone wants inflation to cool off, and a higher … Continued

2008 vs. 2020: What Happens When the Federal Funds Rate is 0%?

During each of the fourteen Federal Open Market Committee meetings from March 2020 through June 2021, Chair Jerome Powell and committee members have decided to leave the federal funds rate unchanged, at a target range of 0% to 0.25%.  With inflation on the rise and unemployment falling, the Fed instead revealed their plan to increase … Continued

S&P 500 Storylines with Lyn Alden

FEATURING: LYN ALDEN One thing I continue to monitor is the consolidation (and potential pivot point) for the ratio of the equal weight S&P 500 $RSP and the market weight version $SPY. Equal weight tends to outperform over the long run, but underperform at the 2nd half of a business cycle. pic.twitter.com/aEompytdMh — Lyn Alden … Continued

Resources for Client Communications in a Bear Market

On February 19th, the S&P 500 set a new all-time-high. The Nasdaq Composite also set a new high that day, while the Dow Jones topped out a week earlier on February 12th. Since then, we’ve witnessed some of the worst sessions in stock market history. It’s worth saying that first and foremost, there are more … Continued