How Well Does the “Buffett Indicator” Predict Market Crashes?

The “Buffett Indicator” is the ratio of total US stock market capitalization to US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Named after Warren Buffett, the “Oracle of Omaha” once called this ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” According to Buffett and the indicator, values above 100% signal overvaluation for US … Continued

Do Inverted Yield Spreads Really Predict Market Crashes?

Inverted yield spreads are among the most widely-followed indicators for predicting economic recessions. In fact, an inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession since 1955. But how effectively can inverted yield spreads be used to predict stock market declines?  In our latest white paper, Which Leading Indicators Best Predict Market Declines?, we analyzed the … Continued

Can You Hedge a Stock Market Crash with an ETF?

The biggest stock market crashes of the 21st century are still etched into investors’ brains—the early 2000s Dot-Com bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic each rattled markets and our daily lives in unique ways. It seems that at any given moment, there are a number of reasons to expect a pull-back … Continued

White Paper: What’s the Optimal Rebalancing Strategy?

Portfolio rebalancing is the practice of realigning a portfolio’s actual allocations with the allocation percentages that were originally intended by the advisor and their client. The problem: rebalancing can negatively impact performance in pursuit of risk controls, and it’s unclear which is the optimal rebalancing frequency. Which strategy is best for managing risk and maximizing … Continued