Economic Update: Reviewing Q1 2024

Below is a sneak peek of insights from the YCharts Q1 2024 Economic Summary Deck. This quarter, bullish sentiment pushed equities higher, while crude oil prices continued steadily climbing and fixed income asset classes declined slightly.

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Market and Asset Class Update

All three major indices ascended in Q1 2024, continuing 2023’s bullish market trends. The S&P 500 took the lead from the NASDAQ, rising 10.2% in Q1. The NASDAQ, for its part, advanced 9.1%, and the Dow Jones rose 5.6%.

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All three major US indices have produced positive double-digit returns over the last year (3/31/2023 – 3/31/2024). The NASDAQ surged 34%, the S&P increased 27.9%, and the Dow Jones climbed 19.6%. Yet, the S&P’s strong advance in Q1 was not exclusive to the “Magnificent Seven” or “S&P 7” stocks, suggesting a broadening of market leadership.

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As for total returns across asset classes, US Growth was the leader in Q1, with an 11.4% gain. The S&P 500 was right behind, with the broader collection of US equities advancing 10.6%. Commodities followed both groups of equities and were up 10.4% in the quarter.

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Keeping an Eye on Oil Prices

One of the commodities seeing a price surge is oil. Both Crude and US Retail Gas Prices are above their long-term averages. And though energy prices are not as big of a factor in core-inflation gauges, like core-CPI or core-PCE, they are the prices consumers regularly see when filling up their cars.

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Zooming into the last three years, the story is a bit different, as Crude and US Retail Gas Prices are more in line with their averages. However, there is significantly less supply in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks, which could lead to higher prices. 

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Higher prices could also negatively impact consumer sentiment due to increased energy costs, which may be consequential in an election year. Moreover, increased oil prices could lead to good things for Q1’s sector leader: Energy.

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