Inflation Surprises in April 2024: How U.S. Treasury Rates Reacted

Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields rose in April, reaching their highest levels in 2024. The surge was fueled by a hotter-than-expected March inflation report, where CPI came in at 3.5%, above the 3.4% expectation. Following the report, the 10-year Treasury yield soared above 4.6% for the first time since November 2023. 

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Elsewhere on the yield curve, 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month Treasury bill rates saw slight increases–particularly towards the end of April–ending the month around the 5.4% mark.

Longer maturities, such as the 1-year, 2-year,  5-year Treasury notes all the way up to the 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year Treasury bond rates, demonstrated more pronounced movements. Reflecting the market’s pessimism that inflation would ease to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, reducing the likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts in 2024.

You can read more about how interest rates affect investors and consumers here.

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There were also sustained 10 year-3 month and 10-2-year yield curve inversions in April—scenarios often associated with anticipatory economic slowdowns. The 10-2 has been inverted for 22 months, which surpasses the 1978 inversion for the most prolonged inversion in history.

You can read more about yield curve inversions here.

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Below, you’ll find how each part of the US Treasury Yield moved in April and over the past year.

Jump to a section:

• Short-term Treasury Rate Movement
• Intermediate-term Treasury Rate Movement
• Long-term Treasury Rate Movement 

Short-term Treasury Rate Movement in April

In April 2024, short-term U.S. Treasury rates demonstrated subtle movements. The 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month rates increased modestly, while the 1-year rate experienced a more significant rise.

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1-Month Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 1-Month Treasury Rate started April at 5.49% and ended the month at 5.48%, down 1 basis point. 

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024, the 1-Month Treasury Rate moved from 4.74% to 5.48%. The average during that time was 5.39%; the 1-Month peaked at 6.02% on May 26, 2023, and the low was 3.36% on April 21, 2023.

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3-Month Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 3-Month Treasury Rate started April at 5.44% and ended the month at 5.46%, up 2 basis points.

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024, the 3-Month Treasury Rate moved from 4.85% to 5.46%. The average during that time was 5.44%; the 3-Month peaked at 5.63% on October 6, 2023, and the low was 4.85% on March 31, 2023.

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6-Month Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 6-Month Treasury Rate started April at 5.36% and ended the month at 5.44%, up 8 basis points.

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024, the 6-Month Treasury Rate moved from 4.94% to 5.37%. The average during that time was 5.37%; the 6-Month peaked at 5.61% on August 25, 2023, and the low was 4.8% on April 4, 2023.

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1-Year Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 1-Year Treasury Rate started April at 5.06% and ended the month at 5.25%, up 19 basis points.

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024, the 1-Year Treasury Rate moved from 4.64% to 5.25%. The average during that time was 5.12%; the 1-Year peaked at 5.49% on September 27, 2023, and the low was 4.43% on April 5, 2023.

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Intermediate-term Treasury Rate Movement in April

The rates for 2-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year bonds increased significantly between April 2023 and April 2024. This increase was particularly noticeable towards the end of the period as more investors began anticipating a “higher for longer” interest rate environment due to the economy’s continued strength and persistent inflation.

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2-Year Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 2-Year Treasury Rate started April at 4.72% and ended the month at 5.04%, up 32 basis points.

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024, the 2-Year Treasury Rate moved from 4.06% to 5.04%. The average during that time was 4.64%; the 2-Year peaked at 5.19% on October 18, 2023, and the low was 3.75% on May 4, 2023.

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5-Year Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 5-Year Treasury Rate started April at 4.34% and ended the month at 4.72%, up 38 basis points.

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024, the 5-Year Treasury Rate moved from 3.6% to 4.17%. The average during that time was 4.17%; the 5-Year peaked at 4.95% on October 19, 2023, and the low was 3.29% on May 4, 2023.

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7 Year Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 7-Year Treasury Rate started April at 4.33% and ended the month at 4.71%, up 38 basis points.

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024, the 7-Year Treasury Rate moved from 3.55% to 4.71%. The average during that time was 4.16%; the 7-Year peaked at 5% on October 19, 2023, and the low was 3.32% on May 4, 2023.

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10 Year Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 10-Year Treasury Rate started April at 4.33% and ended the month at 4.69%, up 36 basis points.

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024, the 10-Year Treasury Rate moved from 3.48% to 4.69%. The average during that time was 4.12%; the 10-Year peaked at 4.98% on October 19, 2023, and the low was 3.30% on April 5, 2023.

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Long-term Treasury Rate Movement in April

Long-term U.S. Treasury rates for the 20-year and 30-year bonds showed notable increases from April 2023 to April 2024, driven by adjusted expectations for fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to a resilient economy and sticky inflation.

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20-Year Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 20-Year Treasury Rate started April at 4.58% and ended the month at 4.90%, up 32 basis points.

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024 the 20-Year Treasury Rate moved from 3.81% to 4.9%. The average during that time was 4.42%; the 20 Year peaked at 5.3% on October 19, 2023, and the low was 3.66% on April 6, 2023.

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30-Year Treasury Rate Movement in April 2024

The 30-Year Treasury Rate started April at 4.47% and ended the month at 4.79%, up 32 basis points.

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Between March 31, 2023 and April 30, 2024 the 20 Year Treasury Rate moved from 3.81% to 4.79%. The average during that time was 4.27%; the 20 Year peaked at 5.11% on October 19, 2023, and the low was 3.54% on April 6, 2023.

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In an environment where expectations for interest rate cuts are changing monthly, asset managers and advisors can leverage Treasury yield data to refine their strategies, better manage risk, and optimize portfolio allocations to align with the evolving economic environment.

Using YCharts to Illustrate the Value of Moving Out on the Yield Curve

In March 2024, asset managers might’ve got a sign that investors were willing to take on more duration due to the $92B exodus from money market funds.

Leverage YCharts in meetings with advisors to demonstrate why your fund is best positioned to assist their clients in achieving their financial goals. You can get more insights on the potential benefits of extending duration here.

With rates across the yield curve higher than their twelve-month average, you can use a powerful visual to demonstrate the potential for price appreciation when rates peak (or near-peak). 

The 10-year peaked in October 2023. From here, you can compare and highlight the potential for price appreciation of your fund with that of a competitor’s to help you win more AUM.

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