Monthly Market Wrap: October 2026
Welcome back to YCharts’ Monthly Market Wrap, your data-driven recap of market trends shaping portfolios and client conversations. In October, defensive sectors outperformed, while communication services fell hard. The Fed held rates steady, employment data underwhelmed, as inflation remains hot.
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Market Summary: An October of Polarizing Returns, Defensive Winners, and Worrisome Employment Data
Markets were mixed in October, the result of polarizing returns across sectors and styles. The Dow Jones led all indices, up 1.76%, while Emerging Markets fell by more than 8%. Defensive sectors posted a strong month, though Energy led all returns up 14%, as Communication Services fell over 15%. Large-cap Value advanced by 4.4% and Large-cap Growth declined by 6.1%.
The economy added just 22,000 jobs this month, while the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.2%. Inflation came in hot once again, increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 3.70%. The Fed held rates steady, with markets anticipating one additional rate hike at the final FOMC of the year, as the 30-year mortgage rate touched levels not seen since November 2023.
Treasury yields fell across the curve, aside from the 1-month. Most notably, the 10-year dipped below 5% in October, down 35 basis points. The 5-year saw the biggest decline, down 38 basis points after spiking 60 basis points in September. In fact, each duration, including the 2-year and longer, dropped by 30 basis points for the month.
Jump to Fixed Income Performance
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Table of Contents
Off the YCharts! Markets After Midterms
Today is Midterm Election Day in the United States, or, depending on when you’re reading this, it has just recently taken place. As clients await the outcomes that will shape policy direction over the coming years, many will be wondering how markets typically respond to elections.
In each of the nine previous cycles, the S&P 500 was higher 12 months after Election Day. The average total return over that period was 16.9%, with the best year coming after 1994, when the market advanced by over 30%.
This streak isn’t just limited to the past 35 or so years, either. Since the index was established in the 1950’s, there has never been a negative return in the 12 months following a midterm election.
So, for clients, is it really that simple? 19/19 previous cycles, 100% of the time, the market was higher once November came back around. Unfortunately, nothing is ever that easy, and as advertised on almost every chart, “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.”
For a deeper breakdown, check out our blog, “How Have Markets Historically Responded to Midterm Elections?”, which goes beyond average returns to highlight the key signals that will matter most for clients in 2027.
Equity Performance: Emerging Markets Fall 8%, Defensive Sectors Gain as Semiconductors Stumble
Major Indices
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| Index | 1 Month Total Returns | 3 Month Total Returns | 6 Month Total Returns | 1 Year Total Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 1.76% | -1.00% | 5.07% | 10.60% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.58% | -3.77% | 1.03% | 14.80% |
| Russell 1000 | -0.69% | 1.45% | 5.71% | 11.80% |
| MSCI EAFE | -0.72% | -1.78% | 3.43% | 14.04% |
| S&P 500 | -0.87% | 1.48% | 5.73% | 12.11% |
| Nasdaq Composite | -5.28% | 0.39% | 2.49% | 7.85% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | -8.04% | -5.39% | -0.73% | 14.43% |
Value vs. Growth Performance
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| Ticker | Name | 1 Month Total Returns | 3 Month Total Returns | 6 Month Total Returns | 1 Year Total Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^RLV | Russell 1000 Value | 4.38% | 3.17% | 12.74% | 28.67% |
| ^RUJ | Russell 2000 Value | 2.51% | -2.53% | 4.17% | 23.49% |
| ^RUO | Russell 2000 Growth | -1.30% | -5.00% | -1.98% | 7.13% |
| ^RLG | Russell 1000 Growth | -6.09% | -0.49% | -1.12% | -2.59% |
US Sector Movement
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| Ticker | Sector | 1 Month Total Returns | 3 Month Total Returns | 6 Month Total Returns | 1 Year Total Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^SPXNRGS | S&P 500 Energy (Sector) | 14.00% | 18.69% | 19.82% | 64.22% |
| ^SPXCNSS | S&P 500 Consumer Staples (Sector) | 11.62% | 7.24% | 6.56% | 21.11% |
| ^SPXUS | S&P 500 Utilities (Sector) | 10.17% | -1.28% | -5.95% | 0.38% |
| ^HCX | S&P 500 Health Care (Sector) | 9.87% | 14.22% | 27.80% | 30.48% |
| ^SPXMS | S&P 500 Materials (Sector) | 6.57% | 5.31% | 2.91% | 23.49% |
| ^SSPS | S&P 500 Financials (Sector) | 5.91% | -0.36% | 9.23% | 9.75% |
| ^SPXRES | S&P 500 Real Estate (Sector) | 5.08% | -3.21% | -0.99% | 10.40% |
| ^SPXCNDS | S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary (Sector) | 3.93% | -2.15% | -3.53% | -3.71% |
| ^SPXINS | S&P 500 Industrials (Sector) | 0.30% | -6.58% | -3.58% | 9.31% |
| ^SPXIFTS | S&P 500 Information Technology (Sector) | -6.80% | 3.45% | 12.09% | 14.23% |
| ^SPXCMSVS | S&P 500 Communication Services (Sector) | -15.11% | -12.52% | -19.60% | -6.60% |
Hot Stocks: Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of October 2026
| Symbol | Name | 1 Month Price Returns | YTD Price Returns | Industry | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACN | Accenture Plc | 40.8% | -3.7% | IT Services | Information Technology |
| PTC | PTC, Inc. | 39.4% | 12.2% | Software | Information Technology |
| HAS | Hasbro, Inc. | 35.8% | 45.2% | Leisure Products | Consumer Discretionary |
| EFX | Equifax, Inc. | 34.5% | -14.9% | Professional Services | Industrials |
| ROP | Roper Technologies, Inc. | 33.5% | 4.8% | Software | Information Technology |
| CCI | Crown Castle, Inc. | 33.1% | -0.2% | Specialized REITs | Real Estate |
| GEN | Gen Digital, Inc. | 32.3% | 7.1% | Software | Information Technology |
| APA | APA Corp. | 27.2% | 115.9% | Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels | Energy |
| DOW | Dow, Inc. | 26.0% | 48.4% | Chemicals | Materials |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin Corp. | 25.1% | 31.7% | Aerospace & Defense | Industrials |
Laggards & Losers: 10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of October 2026
| Symbol | Name | 1 Month Price Returns | YTD Price Returns | Industry | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Intel Corp. | -45.30% | 78.20% | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Information Technology |
| RDDT | Reddit, Inc. | -35.60% | -60.10% | Interactive Media & Services | Communication Services |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corp. | -33.90% | 384.80% | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Information Technology |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | -31.60% | 41.70% | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Information Technology |
| STX | Seagate Technology Holdings Plc | -30.10% | 134.10% | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Information Technology |
| TWLO | Twilio, Inc. | -29.90% | 44.10% | IT Services | Information Technology |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp. | -27.20% | 39.70% | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Information Technology |
| COHR | Coherent Corp. | -26.90% | 14.00% | Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components | Information Technology |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corp. | -26.60% | 133.80% | Electrical Equipment | Industrials |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | -25.70% | 131.10% | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Information Technology |
Featured Market News and YCharts Insights
2026 Midterm Election: How Do Markets Historically Respond?
What Do 7% Mortgage Rates Mean for the Housing Market?
August 2026 Fund Flows: Why Are Investors Turning to Floating Coupons?
5 Ways Advisors Can Make More Informed Fixed Income Decisions
An Advisor’s Guide to Track, Analyze, and Act on Capital Gains
Alternative Investments Explained: Strategies, Structures, and Managers
Economic Data Overview: Inflation Runs Hot as Jobs Reports Concern, Fed Holds Rates Steady
Employment
The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.2% in September, as the US economy added just 22,000 jobs, according to the most recent nonfarm payrolls report. This came in well below the consensus estimate of 84,000. The US Labor Force Participation Rate increased by 0.2 percentage points for a second consecutive month, to 61.80% in August.
Consumers and Inflation
The US inflation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.70% in September. Core inflation also increased, jumping 0.2% MoM to 2.60%. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point hike when the FOMC meets for the final time in 2026 on December 9th.
Production and Sales
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI increased by 1.1 points in October to 55.5, its first positive change since July. The Services PMI decreased by 0.5 points to 54.9 in September, still awaiting October’s reading. The YoY US Producer Price Index ticked up 0.7% in September to 6.30, its highest reading since December 2022, while US Retail and Food Services Sales grew by 0.77% MoM.
Housing
Existing Home Sales increased by 1.53% MoM in September, while the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes fell by 2.38%, down to $417,500. Mortgage rates continued to climb, with the 15-year sitting at 6.60% and the 30-year at 7.24%, both as of October 29th. The 30-year reached as high as 7.40% intra-month, its highest reading since November 2023. US New Single-Family Home Sales fell by 0.59% MoM in September.
Commodities
Gold and Silver prices both fell sharply in October, a second consecutive month of meaningful losses. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) dropped by 6.58% to end the month at $355.78 per share, while the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) fell by 18.18% to settle at $44.60.
Oil prices increased once again in October as the conflict in the Middle East continues. One barrel of Brent crude now costs $125.78, up 8.52%, with WTI up 3.79% to $100.86 per barrel. The US Retail Gas Price fell 2.02% to $4.41 per gallon in October.
Cryptocurrencies
Major cryptocurrencies reversed course in October, following what was a strong September. The price of Bitcoin fell 7.7% to $77,233.17 per coin, while Ethereum dropped 16.24% to $2,242.50.
Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs and Treasury Yields
US Treasury Yield Curve
1 Month Treasury Rate: 4.06%
3 Month Treasury Rate: 4.16%
6 Month Treasury Rate: 4.25%
1 Year Treasury Rate: 4.36%
2 Year Treasury Rate: 4.56%
3 Year Treasury Rate: 4.65%
5 Year Treasury Rate: 4.71%
20 Year Treasury Rate: 5.34%
30 Year Treasury Rate: 5.31%
Bond Fund Performance
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| Ticker | Name | 1 Month Total Returns | 3 Month Total Returns | 6 Month Total Returns | 1 Year Total Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 5.64% | 0.69% | -2.18% | -5.14% |
| LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Inv Grade Corporate Bond ETF | 2.48% | -0.60% | -1.88% | -1.79% |
| AGG | iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF | 2.29% | 0.00% | -0.75% | -0.23% |
| BSV | Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF | 1.24% | 0.40% | 0.47% | 1.63% |
| HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | 0.73% | -1.13% | -0.77% | 1.63% |
| BIL | State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 0.35% | 0.92% | 1.86% | 3.66% |
Monitor the most important trends for clients as markets look to bounce back in November. Download the visual aids directly from YCharts, and contact us for customized access to these charts.
Have a great November! 📈
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