Monthly Market Wrap: September 2026
Welcome back to YCharts’ Monthly Market Wrap, your data-driven recap of market trends shaping portfolios and client conversations. In September, all major US indices posted negative results, apart from the Nasdaq. The Fed raised interest rates as the 10-year crossed levels not seen for 20 years, while major cryptocurrencies clawed back towards even on the year.
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Market Summary: A September of Lonely Winners, Higher Interest Rates, and More Expensive Oil
Markets were negative almost everywhere you looked in September. The Nasdaq was the lone positive index, up 1.9%, while the Russell 2000 fell 5.25%. Similarly, Technology was the only positive sector, up 5.1%, while Financial and Materials both fell by over 7%. Energy, which leads over the trailing twelve months up 41.6%, moved 3.3% lower in September. Large-cap growth was the month’s only positive style, rounding out a September of lonely winners.
The Fed Raised Rates in September, by 25 basis points for the first time in three years, bringing the target upper limit to 4.00%. Brent Crude spiked drastically, up 25% and costing $119.97 per barrel as the Middle East conflict continues. The US inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.4%, a cooler reading than most had anticipated, while the 30-year mortgage rate crossed 7%.
Treasury yields moved much higher across the curve. Most notably, the 10-year jumped 54 basis points to 5.29%, levels not seen in 20 years. The 3-year and 5-year saw the joint biggest move, up 60 basis points each. The 1-month saw the most modest move, rising only 17 basis points, though a big enough jump to cross 4%. iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) fell by 2.7%.
Jump to Fixed Income Performance
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Table of Contents
Off the YCharts! A Year of Headlines in 30 Days
September offered no shortage of “moments”, with what felt like a year’s worth of headlines crammed into just 30 days. Choosing to focus on just one would be a disservice, for a month that was not only hectic but also left most asset classes worse off than when they started.
The S&P 500 fell by a modest 0.3%, a headline figure that isn’t eye-catching until you look below the surface. Of the 504 index constituents, 305 are in drawdowns of 20% or greater, roughly 60% of the index. 182 of these sit more than 35% from their highs.
In fact, only 135 companies are up by 20% or more in total YTD, showcasing that a fraction of the underlying companies are carrying the index’s 12.7% return through three quarters of 2026, while a majority are not doing as well as headline numbers would suggest.
On September 12th, Dario Amodei, CEO & Co-Founder of Anthropic, published an article titled “We Must Pace the Frontier.” In this, he called for regulating and slowing AI growth, citing safety concerns, after which several other AI leaders expressed agreement. The reaction sent the VanEck Semiconductor ETF down 5%, as investors weigh the outlook for the AI trade, which has accounted for an outsized share of economic growth.
Four days later, on September 16th, Kevin Warsh and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, the first hike since 2023. All the while, the 10-year Treasury reached heights not seen in over 20 years, pushing the 30-year mortgage rate past 7% and mounting pressure on an already struggling housing market.
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All the while, Brent Crude surged another 25% as the conflict in the Middle East continues to play out. As we enter the final quarter of the year, clients will hear this noise and come nervously looking for answers.
A client’s risk tolerance is only as good as its last check-in, and when headlines like these come to light, YCharts makes it easy to monitor alignment and uncover blind spots. With our new Risk & Proposal Manager, every client’s risk profile is carried from the first conversation as a prospect to every review that follows, backed by the institutional-quality data financial professionals already rely on.
Equity Performance: Nasdaq Only Positive Index, All Sectors Bar Technology Negative as Moderna Surpasses 550% YTD
Major Indices
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| Index | 1 Month Total Returns | 3 Month Total Returns | 6 Month Total Returns | 1 Year Total Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | 1.93% | 2.61% | 24.78% | 19.25% |
| S&P 500 | -0.35% | 2.30% | 17.85% | 15.74% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | -0.50% | -0.24% | 23.85% | 29.65% |
| Russell 1000 | -0.65% | 1.78% | 17.20% | 15.01% |
| MSCI EAFE | -3.01% | 0.88% | 12.06% | 16.24% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | -4.12% | -2.34% | 10.72% | 11.50% |
| Russell 2000 | -5.25% | -7.23% | 12.71% | 16.20% |
Value vs. Growth Performance
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| Ticker | Name | 1 Month Total Returns | 3 Month Total Returns | 6 Month Total Returns | 1 Year Total Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWF | iShares Russell 1000 Growth | 2.2% | 1.0% | 17.7% | 7.4% |
| IWD | iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF | -3.1% | 2.6% | 16.8% | 23.7% |
| IWN | iShares Russell 2000 Value ETF | -5.2% | -4.9% | 11.3% | 20.4% |
| IWO | iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF | -5.2% | -9.3% | 14.0% | 12.1% |
US Sector Movement
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| Ticker | Sector | 1 Month Total Returns | 3 Month Total Returns | 6 Month Total Returns | 1 Year Total Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Technology | 5.08% | 2.86% | 47.63% | 39.60% |
| XLC | Com Svc | -0.12% | 3.91% | 0.68% | -5.10% |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.87% | 6.55% | 15.82% | 23.03% |
| XLE | Energy | -3.26% | 16.50% | 1.72% | 41.59% |
| XLI | Industrial | -4.40% | -9.61% | 3.78% | 9.49% |
| XLP | Consumer | -4.53% | -2.33% | -0.34% | 5.68% |
| XLU | Utilities | -5.92% | -12.37% | -12.87% | -6.98% |
| XLY | Consumer Disc | -6.44% | -6.99% | 0.29% | -8.42% |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -6.48% | -6.31% | 1.91% | 0.50% |
| XLF | Financial | -7.14% | -0.04% | 8.92% | 0.68% |
| XLB | Materials | -7.15% | -3.75% | -1.73% | 10.63% |
Hot Stocks: Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of September 2026
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| Symbol | Name | 1 Month Price Returns | YTD Price Returns | Industry | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P | Everpure, Inc. | 40.7% | 95.2% | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Information Technology |
| MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | 37.2% | 553.0% | Biotechnology | Health Care |
| INTC | Intel Corp. | 34.3% | 225.8% | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Information Technology |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corp. | 34.3% | 218.8% | Electrical Equipment | Industrials |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | 30.0% | 185.7% | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Information Technology |
| ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | 28.1% | 108.7% | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Health Care |
| SWKS | Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | 27.6% | 34.8% | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Information Technology |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 26.7% | 9.9% | Interactive Media & Services | Communication Services |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 24.8% | 210.9% | Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment | Information Technology |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. | 22.3% | 166.0% | Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals | Information Technology |
Laggards & Losers: 10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of September 2026
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| Symbol | Name | 1 Month Price Returns | YTD Price Returns | Industry | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corp. | -48.4% | -65.0% | Software | Information Technology |
| GEN | Gen Digital, Inc. | -29.0% | -19.0% | Software | Information Technology |
| EFX | Equifax, Inc. | -27.4% | -36.7% | Professional Services | Industrials |
| CHTR | Charter Communications, Inc. | -27.3% | -46.9% | Media | Communication Services |
| AXON | Axon Enterprise, Inc. | -25.4% | -25.6% | Aerospace & Defense | Industrials |
| MGM | MGM Resorts International | -24.9% | -14.9% | Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure | Consumer Discretionary |
| INTU | Intuit, Inc. | -23.3% | -58.4% | Software | Information Technology |
| PAYX | Paychex, Inc. | -22.6% | -12.2% | Professional Services | Industrials |
| GIS | General Mills, Inc. | -21.9% | -30.8% | Food Products | Consumer Staples |
| BX | Blackstone, Inc. | -21.7% | -27.3% | Capital Markets | Financials |
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Economic Data Overview: Fed Hikes Rates by 25 Basis Points, Mortgage Rates Rise to Worrying Levels
Employment
The unemployment rate remained unchanged in August at 4.1%, as the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs, according to the most recent nonfarm payrolls report, well ahead of the consensus of 53,000. The US Labor Force Participation Rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.60% in August, following the lowest reading in over five years in July.
Consumers and Inflation
The US inflation rate remained unchanged at 3.4%, a cooler reading than most had anticipated. Core inflation decreased by 0.1% MoM to 2.40%. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16th, the first hike in more than three years, bringing the range to 3.75–4.00%. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 74% chance that rates remain unchanged in the next FOMC meeting on October 28th.
Production and Sales
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.1 points in September to 54.60, its second consecutive monthly decline. The Services PMI increased by 1.3 points to 55.4 in August, still awaiting September’s reading. The YoY US Producer Price Index ticked up 0.6% in August to 5.40, while US Retail and Food Services Sales grew by 1.24% MoM.
Housing
Existing Home Sales declined by 1.97% MoM in August, as did the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes by 1.67%, down to $429,100. On the other hand, mortgage rates increased sharply in September, with the 15-year sitting at 6.42% and the 30-year at 7.03%, both as of September 24th. This is the first time the 30-year has crossed 7% since January 2025. US New Single-Family Home Sales increased by 6.38% in August, following what was a poor July.
Commodities
Gold and Silver prices both fell sharply in September, following an August in which both increased by 10%. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) dropped by 6.75% to end the month at $380.84 per share, while the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) fell by 9.35% to settle at $54.51.
Oil prices increased in September, drastically in the case of Brent Crude, up 25%, as the Middle East conflict continues. One barrel of Brent crude now costs $119.97, with WTI up 8.62% to $99.37 per barrel. Elevated oil prices continue to cause pain at the pump, with the US Retail Gas Price up 9.41% to $4.60 per gallon in September.
Cryptocurrencies
Major cryptocurrencies continued climbing in September, inching ever closer to even in 2026. The price of Bitcoin rose 7.7% to $83,640.10 per coin, while Ethereum jumped 10.81% to $2,677.38.
Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs and Treasury Yields
US Treasury Yield Curve
1 Month Treasury Rate: 4.02%
3 Month Treasury Rate: 4.20%
6 Month Treasury Rate: 4.33%
1 Year Treasury Rate: 4.54%
2 Year Treasury Rate: 4.88%
3 Year Treasury Rate: 4.00%
5 Year Treasury Rate: 5.09%
10 Year Treasury Rate: 5.28%
20 Year Treasury Rate: 5.68%
30 Year Treasury Rate: 5.64%
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Bond Fund Performance
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| Ticker | Name | 1 Month Total Returns | 3 Month Total Returns | 6 Month Total Returns | 1 Year Total Returns |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIL | State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 0.28% | 0.90% | 1.79% | 3.66% |
| BSV | Vanguard Short-Term Bond ETF | -1.08% | -0.93% | -0.55% | 0.77% |
| AGG | iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF | -2.61% | -3.50% | -2.80% | -1.86% |
| HYG | iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | -2.73% | -2.00% | 0.01% | 0.89% |
| LQD | iShares iBoxx $ Inv Grade Corporate Bond ETF | -3.39% | -5.18% | -3.99% | -4.03% |
| TLT | iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -5.38% | -8.95% | -8.18% | -8.97% |
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